Venice is doomed. On one side sits the Turks with their huge armies, on the other side sits Spain, to the north sits the Hapsburgs. Militarily, Venice cannot defeat any of these neighbours. And at sea Venice is really only the equal of either Spain or Turkey. Militarily Venice is a joke with only two armies and two fleets maximum. On top of all of this Venice starts with a -2 stability and would be fortunate to attain Renaissance technology before Turn 5. Given this situation the first rule of playing Venice is never declare war on Spain, the Hapsburgs, or Turkey.

Let me elaborate. Venice begins with such a negative stability modifier that in any any war with another player that it is vertually guaranteed that the net peace modifier will yield a level 5 peace in favour of your opponent.  And this means bankruptcy for Venice. And bankruptcy means four Venetian commercial fleets are removed from the map. This is on top of any other losses Venice may suffer as a result of the war.

So if you do not fight what do you do?

Well actually you do not have to do anything. A Venice that does nothing but build up a reasonable [for Venice] military force and a decent navy could survive and do well just gathering in VPs for stability and Commercial monopolies in the Med. Assume that Venice gains +3 stability by Turn 4 and suffers only minor stability problems from events and prosperity should expect btween 30 and 33 VPs.

Commercial fleets are the next objective of Venice. With simple negotiations Venice should be able to gain the cooperation of others such that Venice has the only +side commercial fleets in the Adriatic Sea, Ionian Sea, and BlacK Sea STZs. And reasonably Venice should be able to up the Adriatic Sea to a +6 Commercial fleet marker by around Turn 6 or 7. Ideally 19 VPs in the first period, and 74 VPs by the ned of the second period.  But perfection is rarely reached, hope for 45-60 VPs from commercial fleets.

Some dicussion on commercial fleets is in order.  First, privateers are your enemy in this goal.  Barbarby privateers from Tunisia, Tripolitania, and Cyrenaica can attack the Ionian Sea each and every turn without being
at war with you.  Therefore, you need to always have the Venetian Fleet in the Adriatic Sea by the end of Round 2.  And you need to attack any of the Barbary Privateers each and every opportunity you get.  There is a bonus to this process in that everyone of the Barbary Privateers you eliminate in a turn that Barbary Privateer cannot be rebuilt in the next turn. Also, always absorb loses from the privateers with your galleys in your fleet.

When in wars, you can use the same fleet in the Adriatic to absorb loses taken as a result of privateer attacks there as well as absorbing losses inflicted from the Ionian Sea.  The Black Sea is more vulnerable in that it must be covered seperately from the Adriatic and Ionian Sea STZs. Also, if you are at war with Turkey then Turkey will be fighting in friendly waters. Call on allies to help and consider blockading ports containing Privateers when at war.

Venice may only make one attempt to place a commercial fleet each turn but he can make up to two competetion attacks on other commercial fleets per turn in the first period and three in the second period. You can use this to hurt Turkey if they are too aggressive against your commercial fleets in the game.

Period objectives are another source of VPs for Venice. In the first period never ever choose to take either Hellas or Albania from the Turks nor for the Mameluks not to be conquered by the Turks. You have no control over these objectives and if you do choose them and do no achieve them then you lose all of the penalty. Always choose provinces in Italy first as you automaticaaly get 20 VP for Mantua and Venice. Take commercial fleets second, maybe 5VPs here. Take minor vassal third as there is a chance it will happen. And take new province outside of Italy last, not much chance here. Net first period +7VPs.

Second period, again there are three objective not to take Morea, Mameluks not conquered, and no Portugese trading post in India. And again take the same two first for 25 VPs. Take the commercial monopoly in Turkey
CTZ as it does not cost you anything. Net second period +12VP*.  *Note: Turkey can only conquer the Mameluks once so you can lose the minus only once.

In total, Venice can expect 94 VPs at the end of the second period. Or less than Portugal gets if he discovers India [and you are using the flawed VP chart {Note: I have long suggested everyone use the VP table from the
rules as it agrees with most of the rules; but this is another topic}]. IE: you are not going to win in the first two periods.

So why is it that most Venetian players fail to attain halve this VP total. They end up fighting bad wars or the ally with Turkey.

Fighting any war against a player is bad as Venice can never win such a war, at best you are playing for a draw.  How you fight a war as Venice will determine how badly a war will hurt you if at all.

First, adopt a defensive strategy. Let the enemy come to you, Venice has only three clear terain provinces [Mantua, Corfu, and Ionia], and only Mantua does not have a port. For the most part the enemy will be fighting sieges with -6 modifiers [-2 for level of fortress, -2 for terrain and -2 for an unblockaded port]. Once Venice attains Renaissance tech he should consider building Level 3 fortresses in Venice, Istria, and Illyria. To make the process even harder. Venice should use its fleet to keep its ports unblockaded where possible. If you do this then on average a Venetian fortress will not fall until its fifth round under siege. Given that the average turn is slightly less than five rounds long Venice will not often lose a siege. [In EU4, I once had four sieges up and running against the Venetians and never even breached in one of them.]  This policy of patients is the best.

Against Spain/Hapsburgs Venice is up against the wall. First, Mantua is a lost cause, only a level 2 fortress clear terrain and no port. It could last on average only three or four rounds. This means that Venice is conquered the Fortress of Venezia falls. In any turn a 50/50 shot. As soon as both fortresses fall the war is over and you lose as you are conquered.

As bad as it is for Venice to be at war with Spain, it is just as bad for Spain to be at war with you. Spain is required to be in up to the Wars in Italy and probably at least one Crusaade. If Spain does not have at least a
completely neutral Venice then Spain will be at an extreme disadvantage in each of these events. The cost to Spain of attacking Venice is for Spain to lose each of these other wars. Then there is the cost in Stability for a
war against Venice, it is always -2 stability and usually -2 for attacking an ally, then there is an additional -2 stability to pay for the Hapsburg DOW. Most of the time Spain cannot afford the stability penalties for a DOW.  However, on each turn after an alliance has lapsed and before it is renewed Spain can choose instead to declare war and thus avoid the -2 penalty for breaking an alliance. And if [or when] Spain has won the Election to the Holy Roman Empire then Spain gets Hapsburg DOWs without cost. During this period only the cost of a DOW is reasonable to Spain. Unfortunately this can happen twice in the first two periods.

For Venice there is a second hope and that is that Spain will realize both the usefulness and neccessity for Spain to maintain the stability in the Med over the first two periods. In the end, the Venetian player leaves the Med at the end of the second period and Spain is left to reap what he has sown. Having said this a Spanish disaster does not neccessarily mean a Venetian or Dutch gain. Basically, the situation is like Spain standing on your chest and shooting you through his foot. Nobody wins.

So the first priority of Venice should be an alliance with Spain. And only if that option fails should any other course be considered.

The second option is an alliance with France. With three possible War in Italy events France has a natural emnity with Spain for the first two periods and Venice and France have no conflicts or competing interests. Plus France can hit and hurt Spain if Spain ever declares war on Venice.

The third option is an alliance with Turkey. Alliances with Turkey does give Venice an interesting opportunity to fight along side of the Turks, and share in some victories. The cost is in stability if and when a Crusade is called.  Certainly, any alliance with Turkey should include the granting to Venice of some territory from each conquest.  As well as free action for commercial fleets in the Adriatic Sea, Ionian Sea, and Black Sea STZs.

So, lets assume that we have our minimum situation of an alliance with Spain. What options are open to Venice to expand on its victory points. The first and best option is a turn 1 attack on the Papacy. Spain is not permitted to intervene on the behalf of the Papacy as the Papacy markers is not high enough on Spain's diplomacy table to give the option of intervention to Spain. This campaign also does not in any way compromise Spain's relations with the Papacy. Venice can conquer both provinces of Emilia and Romagna then sellect a level 3 peace and Venice will get a peace and both provinces on a roll of 3 or more [+3 per province lost by the minor, +1 per siege lost by the minor, and - 6 for a level 3 peace]. 80% chance of success.  [Did I mention that I rolled a '1' in EU9.]

This campaign has the advantage that it is of great advantage to a Spain that is allied to Venice. It creates a land bridge for Spain between southern Italy and northern Italy/Hapsburg territory. This benefit alone will greatly enhance the ability of Spain to move troops and react to any situation that may arise in the first two periods.  Imagine the advange to Spain in the First War in Italy event if he could freely move his troops from Napoli to Milano, France would never get close to Napoli as all the fighting would take place in and around Milano. If the normal advantages to Spain of an alliance with Venice is not enough then this additional benefit should cement the neccessity of Venice and Spain allying for the first two periods. [Did I mention that in EU9 Spain declined these advantages and has ended his alliance with Venice in the same turn that the First War in
Italy event was rolled.]

In most cases, Venice will gain +6 VPs for the peace, +2 VPs for the successful sieges, +8 VPs for the value of the provinces gained, and +20 VPs for the two Italian provinces gained from this campaign.  It will lose -5 VPs for the DOW without a CB vs a minor.  Net +31 VPs, fully 1/3 of the reasonably expected total for the entire first two periods.

Other campaigns are possible. My next favourite is an attack on Tuscany. Prefer a joint war early before the minor rises to Renaissance tech. Either France, Spain, or Turkey all make good allies [of course Spain is the best choise as the can reasonably reach and attack Florence on round 1 of the turn [through Romagna], the other two have to spend the first round getting to Italy. Venice can do this alone but there is more to be gained in a partnership.  Alone Venice can vertually guarantee taking Luca and getting a level 1 peace 70% of the time. Add an ally with Renaissance tech and they are vertually guaranteed to take Firenze and you both get a level 5 peace. With an ally Venice gets +10 VPs for the level 5 peace, +1 VPs for the successful siege, +6 VPs for the province of Luca, +10 VPs for the Italian Province, and -5 VPs for the DOW against an minor without a CB. Total 22VPs.  Your ally gets a minimum of +11 VPs for the level 5 peace and the successful siege.  Without an ally Venice would get only 14 VPs as they get only a level 1 peace.

Theoretically, similar campaigns could be launched against Genoa and Savoia. But in reality this are both difficult campaigns with sieges into mountainous terrain with a port. And I do not recommend them.

Crusades are something that Venice should always participate in. To not do so is to suffer a -2 stability penalty.  Whereas, you get a free CB when you declare war. And therefore you get +1 VP for a white peace even when
others might lose the Crusade. Never agree to a losing effort unless you absolutely have to. Instead, agree to white peace when others have negotiated their peace with Turkey. Turkey will alway deal with you in this as it gives him an extra VP. Everyone in the west will agree as they will either have to pay the price of a seperate peace or not get their peace.

If you ever get the opportunity to join in a joint conquest with another player always consider it.  It is an opportunity to build alliances and gain a few VPs.

Rarely, if ever, go to war with another player, except a Crusade, as these are uncertain circumstances.

Diplomacy with minors.
Venice has one on diplomatic action per turn. Pavia is about the only minor in Italy Venice can expect to have a chance at. Other than that the Venetian diplomatic action is mainly for the advantage of others. Poland and Persia are good sellections as a safeguards against Turkish aggression. Venice could go for southern German minors so as to lock them up for Spain. Other than that there is always aggresive diplomacy vs minors where you invest against a minor in order to force the owner of the diplomatic marker to make at least a minimum investment or lose the minor. Lastly you can sell your action to others.

Reasonably, Venice can optimistically only hope for 130 - 150 VPs. I have never seen Venice with more than 100 VPs. Venice is probably only the second most difficult player to play in the first two periods. Only Spain is more difficult.
 

Sincerely;
Mitchell Wageler