The second half of the Statement 'Venice is doomed'. Comes from the proper play of Turkey. While this entry is not a full dissertation on Turkish options in the first two periods.

Turkey has several choises to make in the first period. Because of the Timar rules and the relative power of the Turkish forces it makes good sense for Turkey to be constantly at war in the first period. The only thing that can stop this plan is a disaster in a war that sets the Turk back.

My own choise for the first war is the Knights in Malta. The Knights do not begin on the diplomatic chart of any player so no one can intervene on their behalf. As the Turks you are not likely to face a more favourable
situation vs the Knights that you do on turn 1. Normally, the Turks win this campaign in one turn.

The real question is what to do next. Many Turks attempt to make a deal with Venice that allows them to make war on the Mameluks. While I agree that eventually Turkey will have to attack the Mameluks my preference is to wait until the second period.  The reason for this is purely for the VPs. A conquest of the Mameluks is worth 42 VPs for territory, 10 VPs for the level 5 peace, and a few more for battles and sieges, and -5 VPs for the DOW against a minor without a CB in the first period. In the second period you can add another 120 VPs if Turkey chooses "Each new province" as his primary period objective.

But what to do if you do not go after the Mameluks. I say that the best alternative is to go after Venice early and hit him hard. All the Venetian advantages of defending with fortresses in the mountains with unblockaded ports goes out the window when those huge Renaissance Turkish armies assault those Level 2 Medieval fortresses. One quick 'no mercy' campaign and Venice is done for good.

In this campaign, you lead with an average General and two Armies into Ragusa round 1 and then your best General and two Armies into Illyria round 2. Odds are you will win both assaults. You can set up to assault the
Presidio in Morea just to rid yourself of the insult at the same time, a better than 50/50 shot here. You then march north along the coast until you get to Venice. In a moderately long turn of 6 rounds you will be able to get there in one turn, otherwise it may take two turns. Military gains are not important as you will start with the vertually unbeatable advantage of a large stability advantage.

No Medieval Venetian force can stand in front or the Turkish armies this early in the game. Ideally, you can co-ordinate the Turkish attack on Venice with a War in Italy event. But, things are seldom perfect.

If Spain and/or France intervene on behalf of Venice they will add some backbone to Venetian resistance but they are not enough to stand against Turkey early on. Ldets and Pashas are enough to defend the limited lands Turkey starts with from any western invasions. A single army in Angora is sufficient to crush any invasion the west could mount. Remember that you do not have the long coast of the Middle East and Egypt to defend.

France and Spain turn into a Turkish asset if the War extends into a  second turn as neither of these nations can afford to be involved in a long war at this time. And the event can call them into a War in Italy twice in this period. They will pressure for peace.

In addition to the land war Turkey should launch a full Privateer war. Two privateer+ units, three Barbary privateers, and a privateer admiral backed up by the Turkish fleet can be very effective.

In the end, how you treat the Venetians at the peace table depends on how many provinces you took. At a minimum, I would take Istria and Ragusa. And a bankruptcy would be nice or if you are kind accept Cypress.

Assuming the first victory, Turkey can declare war again in the next turn. First, march into Venice then into Illyria round 2, and Ionia round 3. This time you demand Illyria, Crete, and Corfu or you will take Venice and will fight a third war on the next turn.

From this point you can afford to be nice to Venice. At any time you will be able to go to war with him a threaten to take all his remaining territory. You do not need to do this immediately. You can afford to wait until the third period after your good ally Venice move on to play Holland. Of course you can exterminate Venice at you leisure if he does not wish to play his roll. Especially as the three territories left to him are all easiliy reached by Turkish forces.

In EU4, I played a successful Turkey. I followed my plan to not attack the Mameluks until the second period, but in my opinion I wasted away most of the first period. Turn two I took the Knights in Malta. Then I fought a
phoney Crusade taking only Bessarabia round 3. Only getting on track in Turn 4 with an early invasion of Hungary.

I regretted not going for Venice when it was time to get him.  As a result, I never gained a single province from Venice in the entire first two periods and I only successful sieged one Venetian Fortress in that same period and
that was Mantua on the last turn of the second period.

Venice had three seperate players in that game. The final player played a crafty second period [Risto take a bow].  And I came away with nothing at the expense of Venice as a result. The final insult was that on the last turn of the second Period when Ragusa was the supply point for an invasion into Albania and Hellas in a 'Get Turkey' War. Learn from my mistake, Venice is not Turkeys friend unless he is small.
 

Sincerely;
Mitchell Wageler